Zhonggong Education (002607): The performance continues to increase and the leading vocational education leader has a solid advantage
The company disclosed three quarterly reports, and its performance was in line with expectations.
In the third quarter of 19, the company achieved revenue of 25.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.
08%, net profit attributable to mother 4.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 41 in ten years.
62%, net of non-attributed net profit4.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
From the first quarter to the third quarter of 19, the company realized revenue of 61.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 47 in ten years.
67%, net profit attributable to mother 9.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 77 in ten years.
15%, net of non-attributed net profit 8.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 74 in ten years.
The performance was at the median of the forecast range (3Q19 net profit attributable to the mother increased by 35% -45% per year), in line with expectations.
Key investment points: public test + public institution recovery, sinking and cross-track expansion to boost high performance.
The company’s revenue end maintained a high growth rate in the first half of the year, mainly due to: 1) the recruitment of uniform examinations for civil servants and public institutions has gradually picked up, and the company has a platform advantage and a dimensionality reduction effect to increase market share.
2020 National Examination Recruitment 2.
40,000 people, over 143.
70,000 people, the number of registered reviewers increased by 4% each year, the increase in the number of registered applicants exceeded the increase in the number of follow-up enrollments, mainly due to some post professional, academic qualifications and other restrictions; 2) teachers + grass-roots public services (three support, village officials,Auxiliary police, etc.) The sinking and decentralized examination layout has entered the recovery period; 3) The company’s cross-track expansion has contributed to the increase in income, and the ability of multi-category layout of professional employment has been continuously verified, such as graduate entrance examination, physician qualification training, and IT training.
The advance payment and refund model led to the breakdown of advance receipts in 3Q19, and the operating net cash flow was negative.
As of 3Q19, the company received 39 advances.
2 billion, a decrease of 17 in the second quarter of 19.
4 billion, the total amount of advance receipts is mainly recognized as revenue after the provincial performance appraisal is announced, corresponding to the change in the performance of the company from low to high.
Net operating cash flow for the third quarter of 19 was -13.
12 trillion, an increase of 3.
3 billion, mainly because the provincial test refund fee concentrated in 3Q and directly offset the sales of goods, cash received from providing labor services.
In the third quarter of 19, the company’s gross profit margin was 57.
7% was basically stable (18Q3 58.
1%), affected by sales and R & D investment, the sales expense ratio and R & D expense ratio increased by 1.
0PCT to 16.
7PCT to 8.
24%, but the overall cost rate is controllable.
The leading advantages of vocational education are solid, and the ability to sink + cross-track is continuously verified.
As of 1H19, the company has covered 319 prefecture-level cities with a total of 880 outlets. It is the largest educational institution in China with offline outlets.
The company mainly gives off-line credit. In the long term, the company’s continuously encrypted offline channel layout has gradually developed to reach higher candidates in the sinking market, increasing the market share of existing businesses; the other party can be reflected in multidisciplinary replication and promotion.Scale effect, while improving the company’s sales capabilities.
Investment suggestion: The company is expected to achieve rapid sinking and track expansion through its ability to standardize its products, offline channel capabilities, and solid leadership in vocational education.
We maintain our profit forecast. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of 16-20E.
320,000 yuan, 23.
240,000 yuan, 南京夜网 29.
34 trillion, corresponding to EPS0.
48 yuan, corresponding to PE is 72, 49, 39 times.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: public examinations and adjustments to the recruitment policy of public institutions, the number of participants increased significantly.
Sanyou Chemical (600409) 2019 performance preview comment: the bottom of the viscose staple fiber proved the performance improvement inflection point upwards
Event: The company issued a 2019 performance forecast, reported and achieved net profit attributable to its mother.
200 million, a year-on-year decrease of 55% and a deduction of non-net profit of 6.
300 million, a year-on-year decrease of 62%; of which the net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter of the year1.
900 million, an increase of 35.
5%, deducting non-net profit 1.
100 million, down 20 from the previous month.
2%, in line with expectations.
Investment summary: The core product price declines in 2019 are mainly responsible for maximizing performance.
In 2019, the market for viscose staple fiber, silicone, and light soda ash is obvious, and the market for heavy soda ash is generally flat with the same period of last year.
The average market price of viscose staple fiber in 2019 is 11,933 yuan / ton, which is down by 19 each year.
3%, the price gap temporarily reduced 1364 yuan / ton, mainly due to the increase in the industry’s supplementary production capacity, the overall supply surplus.
The average DMC market price in 2019 was 18,803 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 36.
1%, the price gap temporarily narrowed 8782 yuan / ton, mainly due to insufficient demand in overseas markets, a large increase in production capacity is expected to be put into production.
In 2019, the average market prices of young and heavy soda ash were 1,725 yuan and 1,919 yuan / ton, respectively, and they fell 7 times.
The price difference has been reduced by 83% / ton and 30 yuan / ton respectively. The soda ash industry has maintained a tight balance between supply and demand and increased production capacity. The market size has changed little.
In 2019, the average market prices of PVC and caustic soda were 6,759 yuan and 3022 yuan / ton, respectively, and they continued to fall by 0.
1% and 26%, mainly due to weak downstream market demand for caustic soda.
In the fourth quarter, the market for major products declined, resulting in a decrease in the non-performance results.
In the fourth quarter, except for heavy soda ash, PVC, and caustic soda, the prices of other products were basically stable compared to the previous month, and the 上海夜网论坛 prices of other products fell overall.
In the fourth quarter, the average prices of viscose staple fiber, light soda ash, and DMC market were RMB 10,564, RMB 1,587, and RMB 17,459 / t, respectively, which were down 9 from the previous month.
In the fourth quarter, viscose staple fiber, light soda ash, heavy soda ash, and DMC spreads decreased by 693 yuan, 68 yuan, 38 yuan, and 1963 yuan / ton, respectively.
The company’s viscose staple fiber sales have grown significantly, and the industry is expected to gradually recover.
In the second half of 2018, the company added 25 / year viscose staple fiber production capacity, and the incremental contribution in 2019 is obvious.
The viscose staple fiber industry is currently in a serious situation and has entered the bottom of the industry. In the future, some supplementary production capacity changes, and some backward production capacity will withdraw, and the industry is expected to usher in recovery.
The company is a leader in the viscose staple fiber industry, with a high proportion of high-end differentiated products. It also has raw materials such as caustic soda, which helps to benefit from the recovery of the viscose staple fiber industry.
Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The company is a domestic double-header of viscose staple fiber and soda ash, and its performance is expected to bottom out. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 2019-2021 will be 0.
59 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 18 respectively.
8 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; the price of products drops sharply; product sales are lower than expected
SAIC Group (600104): For the first time in December, it is optimistic that SAIC sales will return to growth in 2020
Highlights of the report The SAIC Group released its December sales report, and the Group achieved sales of 69 in December.
80,000 units, an annual increase of 5.
76%; SAIC Volkswagen achieved sales of 23.
40,000 units, an increase of 37 in ten years.
7%; SAIC-GM achieved sales of 12.
40,000 units, with a ten-year average of 27.
6%; SAIC passenger cars achieved sales of 7.
70,000 units, an increase 杭州夜生活网 of 11% in ten years.
Event comments The Spring Festival effect has driven demand back up, and SAIC has achieved positive monthly growth for the first time in 2019.
According to the latest weekly statistics of the Federation of Trade Unions, the industry ‘s overall retail breakdown in December was 4%, and wholesale growth was 1%.
From a retail perspective, considering that new energy vehicles continue to be subdivided by factors, the retail sales of fuel vehicles are expected to achieve positive growth.
The Spring Festival in 2020 is earlier, and the car purchase effect brought by the return to hometown reflects the driving of car consumption demand.
For the first time in December, SAIC’s wholesale year achieved positive growth, reaching a margin of 5.
Overall sales growth in the fourth quarter4.
3%, narrowed gradually from the first three quarters.
SAIC’s full-year sales in 2019 were 623.
80,000 units, with a ten-year average of 11.
Volkswagen sales have achieved better growth, and GM is still in the destocking phase under product adjustments.
SAIC Volkswagen has begun to go to the warehouse in December 2018, and the wholesale base is relatively relative. The industry boom rebounded, and the wholesale end increased 37 in December 2019.
An initial record of 200.
20,000 units sold, temporarily below 3.
1%, an increase of 11 in the fourth quarter.
SAIC-GM is still in the product adjustment period. Reducing inventory is currently the main guide for SAIC-GM, and it will stay at 27 in December.
6%, with an average overall sales of 160.
100,000 units, a ten-year average of 18.
8%, 29% in the fourth quarter.
Wuling’s performance was dazzling, and the wholesale end of its own brand remained stable.
Wuling’s new models RS3, RM5 and other new models are selling well. At the same time, Wuling’s main sales regions return to home consumption more obviously.
3%, an increase of 39 from the previous month.
The wholesale of autonomous passenger vehicles increased by 11% in December, and continued to maintain a steady growth. The overall independent brand increased by 4 in the fourth quarter.
5%, performing well.
Looking forward to 2020, SAIC Group’s sales are expected to maintain steady growth.With low inventory and low base, the overall demand side of the industry is committed to maintaining relative stability in 2020.
SAIC’s continued overseas efforts and the return of new energy to growth are expected to bring SAIC’s overall sales to maintain steady growth.
The launch of new models such as SAIC-GM Angke Banner and Cadillac and the adjustment of vehicle configuration are expected to stabilize sales.
Subsequently, the completion of 杭州夜生活网 the SAIC Audi project will bring new points of profit growth.
The company’s EPS is expected to be 2 in 2019, 2020 and 2021.
77 and 3.
11 yuan, the corresponding PE is 9 respectively.
64X and 7.
68X, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk Warning: 1.
The industry boom continues to slump; 2.
SAIC-GM did not meet expectations.
Poly Real Estate (600048): Steady performance releases significant financing advantages
I. Overview of the event Poly Real Estate released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of 1945 in 2018.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
7%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 18.9 billion, an annual increase of 20.
Second, the performance of analysis and judgment has steadily increased, and profitability has continued to increase. The company achieved operating income in 1945 in 2018.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
7%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 18.9 billion, an annual increase of 20.
The report averages that the company’s gross sales margin and return on net assets reached 32.
48% and 15.
5%, an increase of 1 over the previous year.
43 and 0.
89 single, profitability is further strengthened.
Sales maintained profits and abundant land resources. In 2018, the company achieved sales of 4,048.
20,000 yuan, an annual increase of 30.
9%, the sales scale exceeded 400 billion yuan for the first time, ranking first among the top five in the industry, and first among state-owned enterprises.
The company adheres to the strategy of cultivating first-tier and second-tier cities and core urban agglomerations. It has a total 苏州桑拿网 area of 103.9 million square meters under construction and a total area of 91.54 million square meters under development in 100 cities at home and abroad.need.
Financial stability and financing advantages. By the end of 2018, the company’s net debt ratio and asset and liability restructuring excluding advance receipts are expected.
55% and 42.
55%, down 5 compared with the end of 17.
9 and 2.
38 averages, leverage continued to improve, and financial health.
Under the circumstance of extensive financing environment, the company’s comprehensive financing cost was 5 in 2018.
03%, only an increase of 0 over the previous year.
With 21 units, financial costs have obvious advantages in the industry.
Third, investment advice Poly Real Estate has achieved steady growth in performance, with sales ranking among 四川耍耍网 the top five in the industry, rich land reserves, financial stability, and clear financing advantages.
The company’s EPS is expected to be 1 in 19-21.
88 yuan, corresponding to PE 7.
8 times, the company’s highest in the past three years, the lowest, the median PE is 13 respectively.
0 times, maintaining the company’s “recommended” level.
4. Risk warning: tightening policies in the real estate industry, sales are less than expected
Brokers, some industries with intensive fund insurance investigations, the target stocks are the most popular?
In the second quarter, the securities companies, some industries with intensive fund insurance investigations, the target stocks are the most popular?
Cai Union News (Shanghai, Judge Zhang Shuang), since the second quarter of 2019, the three major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen have shown a weak and volatile pattern. In recent days, northbound funds have shown a net and net trend, and market sentiment is sluggish.Game-oriented.
According to wind data, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen by 4 in the past 60 days.
34%, Shen Chengzhi fell by 2.
68%, and with market sentiment uncertain, investment opportunities in the market outlook have attracted much attention.
Entering the second quarter of 2019, the institution began intensive research on listed companies.
According to wind data statistics, from June 1st to August 6th, 508 listed companies received intensive research by institutions.
At this point, the investigation trends of securities companies, public funds, top private equity, insurance and insurance asset management investigations have been exposed.
A certain type of underlying implies investment opportunities, and certain industries have configuration value. 苏州桑拿网 Brokers, funds, and insurance companies pay most attention to this stock, and the Finance Association will interpret them one by one.
The industry ‘s favorite industry has released the logic behind the industry. Since the second quarter, securities companies, public funds, top private equity, insurance and insurance asset management institutions have entered an intensive “investigation season”.
According to statistics compiled by the Finance and Accounting Association, from the perspective of the “preference” of individual stocks in the second quarter of the second quarter, Hikvision, Fuling mustard, Huanxu Electronics, Lepu Medical, Zhuoshengwei, Midian Health, Jinjia shares, Haida Group and Huichuan Technology are the most favored.
From the perspective of industry distribution, listed companies in the pharmaceutical (Chinese medicine, western medicine, and medical-related) 重庆耍耍网 industrial machinery, electronic equipment and instruments, electrical components and equipment, and electronic components industries have received the most institutional surveys.
Data source: from the perspective of the research industry distribution of the organization, the pharmaceutical and biological industry is the most popular, including 39 types of pharmaceutical and biological industry companies such as western medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, healthcare, and biotechnology.
Among them, among medical and biological companies, Lepu Medical and Mindray Medical received surveys up to 174 and 83 times.
This year, the pharmaceutical and biological industry is still the focus of deployment. As a key area of the growth sector, institutional research has naturally expanded.
Regarding the cause of “being favored” in the pharmaceutical and biological industry, Industrial Securities believes that the A-share pharmaceutical sector continues to be favored by foreign investors.
Data from China Stock Connect shows that pharmaceutical stocks have been in an overweight state. In the expansion of the MSCI segment in November 2019, the pharmaceutical sector ranks first in various industries in the division of mid-cap stocks, and will more fully enjoy the richness.Institutional dividends from inflows.
In addition to the pharmaceutical industry, industries related to industry and electronics are valued, and there is a gap in the number of institutional studies obtained in all industries.
Among them, in the field of industrial equipment, a total of 30 companies received institutional intensive research.
Among them, the companies most favored by the company are Sanhua Intelligent Control and Golden Card Intelligence, which have received institutional research up to 69 and 39 times in two months, respectively, and Constance and Saurer Intelligent Research 18 times.
Among them, it is the industry most favored by institutions. Industrial machinery is mainly the industry that produces and sells industrial machinery products, including general machinery and equipment (machine tools, fans, pumps, etc.) and special machinery and equipment (chemical machinery, printing and packaging machinery, textile and clothing machinery,Building materials machinery, etc.).
So what is the investment logic behind the industrial machinery industry?
China Merchants Securities analysts believe that, first of all, the construction machinery industry is the most definitive sub-sector, and economic underpinning measures such as infrastructure and real estate investment will effectively promote the industry’s sales volume, and tougher update requirements will lengthen the industry’s business cycle.
The first is the opportunity for science and technology board.
Science and technology make up for shortcomings, self-controllability has been raised to unprecedented heights, and science and technology innovation boards carry the hope of domestic high-tech equipment companies competing for world-class enterprises.
The machinery industry in the science and technology board is mainly focused on high-end manufacturing such as intelligent equipment robot automation and core inspection. Through the promotion of the science and technology board, excellent-sized mechanical target and benchmark A-share listed companies are expected to welcome investment opportunities.
In addition, “The intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is an inevitable choice for the upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry. The key components, systems and ontology of robots are the core capabilities of intelligent manufacturing. The integration of industrial systems is the guarantee of the landing of robot applications. The operation of industrial Internet isAdvanced form and future of manufacturing production and profit model upgrade.
“Chuancai Securities analysts believe.
In addition to the industrial machinery industry, the electronic equipment and instruments and electronic components industry also contains alkali configuration value.
Among them, Hikvision, Hudian and Sunlord Electronics are the most favored companies in this field.
Obtained 413 institutional investments, 85 and 63 in two months.
The electronics industry has been recognized for almost a year.
CITIC Construction believes that the electronics industry is about to enter a new round of innovation cycles with 5G as its main line. In the early stage of innovation, 2019, it is judged that the overall industry outlook is expected to bottom out, and then it will enter a period of price release driven by rising volume and price.
Wu Chao, an analyst at CITIC Construction Investment, once told reporters that in the future, the technology industry may usher in the best window of three to five years for technology investment.
Technology 50, the leading company in the technology industry is the best investment opportunity in the next three to five years.
There are three main logical supports behind it: breakthrough technological innovation has reached a new cycle, and the policy environment has brought more opportunities for technological innovation. The science and technology board has a positive impact on the TMT industry.
The most popular institutions favor individual stocks. The institutions that have found that the investment logic behind the key industries and their configurations that are worthy of attention are worth thinking about, and the most researched key targets are also worthy of attention.
In the two months since the second quarter, from the perspective of a “higher degree” of stocks, Hikvision, Fuling mustard, Huanxu Electronics, Lepu Medical, Zhuo Shengwei, Midian Health, Jinjia shares, HaidaThe Group and Huichuan Technology are the most favored. In the past two months, 413, 235, 189, 174, 167, 155, 136, 109, and 108 studies have been conducted. As the company with the most institutional research since the second quarter-Hikvision, the company ushered in a survey of brokers including CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, China Merchants Securities and East China Securities Asset Management.At the same time, Castrol Fund, Boshi Fund and other institutions have also recentlyConvoy intensive research.
Judging from the frequency of investigations by securities companies, the frequency differences in the investigation of listed companies since the second quarter were broken down.
This round of Industrial Securities, CITIC Securities, and Tianfeng Securities are called the “most diligent brokers”. The first two months of the second quarter were found by the three securities firms 94 times, 82 times, and 80 times.
Anson Securities conducted 80 investigations, Haitong Securities 77 times, and CICC 71 times.
Definitely, on the whole, the securities companies focus on listed companies except Hikvision, Liling mustard, Huanxu Electronics, Lepu Medical, Zhuo Shengwei, Midian Health, Jinjia and other well-known targets.In the second quarter, intensive research was conducted on Semir, which is different from other institutions’ preferences.
In addition, insurance capital and asset management focus on listed companies. In addition to Hikvision, Fuling mustard, Lepu Medical and other popular targets, insurance capital companies intensive research on Zhouming Technology in the second quarter, which is different from other institutionsThe place.
From the perspective of top private equity and foreign research trends, the companies that each institution focuses on are also different.
According to statistics, since the second quarter of 2019, in addition to the companies that are generally concerned by the institutions, the top three stocks that Gaoyi Assets is most concerned about include Sanlian Hongpu. Wen ‘s shares have been surveyed by Goldman Sachs and Jinglin Assets.Stone research.
In addition, foreign BlackRock also conducted investigations on Dier Laser, Goldwind Technology, and Shiji Information.
Depth * Company * Inspur Information (000977): Looking at server growth from the perspective of “Global No. 1” strategic dismantling
We re-examine the explosive power of the company’s growth.
According to the five-year target and data from companies in the same industry, based on domestic linear growth and overseas breakthroughs, the certainty of CAGR exceeding 25% is high.
The rationality of the estimated advantages is also verified from the R & D indicators.
Growth and estimated levels are underestimated. Maintain Buy rating.
The key points of the support level are to re-examine the company’s growth from reaching the “Global First” goal of the server by 2022.
Institutions such as IDC have continuous forecasts for the server market, and the market often simply simplifies the company’s growth based on this.
On average, companies 2012?
Correlation between 2018 revenue growth (over 66% CAGR) and industry level (under 10%).
The reasons include years of independent controllable opportunities and own development strategies.
Therefore, based on the company’s announced goal of becoming the world’s number one server (market share) in 2022, combined with data from rivals such as Dell and HP, it is estimated that the company’s CAGR will exceed 25% in the future.
The breakdown targets show that: (1) domestic revenue should maintain a 22% linear growth; (2) overseas revenue can be achieved by existing large customers, second breakthroughs, etc. 佛山桑拿网 to achieve a 39% growth rate.
The 18-year CAGR is 224%, and it can be judged that the strategic goal is better.
The scale advantage after becoming a “world leader” cannot be underestimated.
Both the gross margin of new products and the expense ratio under the synergy of the Group have improved, helping to increase the growth rate of net profit.
In terms of gross profit margin, the company has increased its category innovation, and AI and edge computing servers may increase the overall gross profit margin 2?
3pct to more than 14%; in terms of expense ratio, the affiliated units of Inspur Group can achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
That is to say, the growth rate of net profit is expected to be higher than earlier.
The indicator shows that the technical content supports a higher estimation interval.
Through the analysis of indicators such as per capita research and development expenditure and per capita patents, the company and the server industry are in a leading position in the field of information hardware research and development and manufacturing.
The PE in 2019 is about 33 times, which is at the bottom of historical expectations, and has deviations from predictions such as Zhongke Shuguang, and there is reasonable room for improvement.
Estimated for 2019?
Net profit in 2021 will be 0.
8.3 billion, with EPS of 0.
42 yuan (adjusted by considering the increase in net profit margins -2.
2%), corresponding to PE of 33, 23, 17 times.
Both the company’s growth and estimates are in a low estimate, and we maintain a BUY rating.
The main risks faced by ratings are third-party data deviations; changes in demand have led to faster performance growth; and international trade disputes have intensified.
Shanying Paper (600567) Company Research: Subsidiary Nordic Paper intends to list overseas to enhance core competitiveness of overseas business
Event: The board of directors of the company was established and adopted the “Practice on the Overseas Listing of Nordic Paper, a Subsidiary of the Company”.重庆耍耍网
The company intends to spin off Nordic Paper, a company affiliated to the realm, to be listed in Sweden. The issue size will be determined based on the rules of the exchange in the listing place and the actual capital requirements of Nordic Paper.Value levels and market subscriptions.
The subsidiary Nordic Paper is expected to be listed overseas, which will strengthen the core competitiveness of overseas business.
The company acquired Nordic Paper in 2017 for a consideration of approximately 19.
RMB 5.2 billion.
Nordic Paper has a specialty paper business with a capacity of 26 inches.
The special paper market in Europe has a good competition pattern, and its profitability is relatively stable. Nordic Paper’s profit per ton of paper is about 1,000 yuan.
Nordic Paper’s overseas listing will help the company’s overseas business expansion and enhance its core competitiveness.
At the same time, the company’s investment in Northern Europe is expected to be reintroduced after its listing to reduce investment risks.
In the short term, there will be a supply gap in the packaging paper industry in 2020.
The prohibition policy has continued since 2017, 2017?
Imported waste paper has been gradually reduced by 3175 tons in 2019. After considering the substitution effect, the supply of waste paper has dropped by 2081, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become apparent during the destocking stage.
We predict that imported waste paper will continue to decrease by 500 tons in 2020, and the inventory will be buffered. Demand will be significantly repaired. Conservative calculations will reduce the gap by nearly 1,000 tons in 2020, accounting for 15% of demand.The price will show a rising trend.
The price of finished paper will exceed that of waste paper, and the profit of paper mills will expand.
1) The concentration of paper mills is much higher than the upstream and downstream. In the historical price increase cycle, the price of finished paper rose more than waste paper, and the gross profit of paper mills increased.
2) From the perspective of the respective supply and demand of finished paper and waste paper, the decrease in the supply of waste paper corresponds to the decline in the supply of box-fiber paper, which means that the marginal offsets at the supply end are equal.
The demand for finished paper affected by inventory has reached 1500 months, and it is expected to be repaired in 2020. The demand for waste paper is the capacity of finished paper, but the shutdown capacity exceeds the supplement, and the actual net increase in 2020 is limited.
The company is a packaging paper factory with the most flexible A-share performance and strong raw material guarantee capabilities.
Huazhong Papermaking Base plans a maximum production capacity of 220. A 50 vertical production line has been started at the end of November 2019. It is expected that the company’s total packaging paper production capacity will reach 500 mm by the end of 2020.
The company’s global waste paper recycling channel layout is complete. In the beginning of 2020, some 42 initial waste paper pulps will be put into use. Together with the external waste in 2020, it will meet the company’s demand for US waste and ensure the safety of raw materials.
The profit elasticity brought by the two parts in 2020: 1) the cost of waste paper pulp + external waste locks part of the cost, and the foreign waste price gap will widen;
In the medium and long term, the packaging paper market has great potential for growth, and its concentration will accelerate.
The effect of paper packaging replacing other packaging gradually appears, and the industry has a lot of room for growth in the future.
The decline in the supply of raw materials will correspond to the decline in the actual cumulative amount of finished paper. Small factories will not be able to start up because of the loss of raw materials, and the industry concentration will accelerate.
At present, CR4 is less than 50%, and the benchmark is 77% in the United States. There is a lot of room for improvement.
The main papermaking throughput is distributed across the country, and the vertically integrated development controls raw materials + locks on downstream demand.
The company’s paper production capacity has gradually realized a national layout, closer to customers, and significantly reduced transportation costs.
The upstream and downstream vertical integration layout has improved waste paper recycling capabilities through the integration of upstream waste paper recycling channels; expanded downstream packaging business to target downstream customers and needs.
Estimate the bottom and leave a margin of safety.
The company’s current PB estimate is only 1.
2X, the lowest in history is 1.
0X, the average PB is 1.
The waste paper industry is expected to usher in the supply side of the industry as the waste paper gap appears.
0 reform, the trend is expected to improve upwards, the current estimated level remains a margin of safety.
Leading packaging and paper mills have strong paper manufacturing costs and product advantages. The vertical integration layout controls the market and has long-term growth potential, maintaining a “Buy” rating.
What do we expect the company 2019?
Realize net profit attributable to mothers in 2021.
6.5 billion, previous change -42.
0% / 13.
9% / 21.
2%, corresponding to PE 8.
8X / 7.
7X / 6.
Risk reminder: Changes in imported waste paper policy, terminal demand growth, and project construction is less than expected.
Bank of Communications (601328): Profitability continues to repair stable asset quality
Event: Bank of Communications disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019.
In 1H19, operating income reached 1182 trillion US dollars, an increase of 16% year-on-year; net profit attributable to mothers was 42.7 billion US dollars, exceeding the growth of 4%.
8%, in line with our expectations.
The non-performing ratio in the second quarter of 19 was flat at 1 quarter-on-quarter.
47%, provision coverage increased by 0 quarter-on-quarter.
1 up to 173.
The high revenue growth benefited from the improvement of the interest margin and the contribution of non-interest income, and the repair of profitability.
In 1H19, Bank of Communications’ operating income and pre-provision profit (PPOP) increased by 16% and 10, respectively.
3%, although it is faster than 19Q1 (26.
5%, 16%) fell, but the overall growth rate in the first half of the year (-1.
2%) There is resistance to increase.
From the analysis of performance driving factors, net interest income contributed the most to the revenue side, and net interest income contributed 9 in 1H19.
23%, of which the change in the spread contributed 6.
2%; non-interest income contribution 6.
78%, of which net income from program fees contributed 4.
In 1H19, the non-interest income of the Bank of Communications increased by ten in ten years.
8% compared to the same period last year (-2.
8%) The negative is positive.
Among them, net fee income increased by 9 per year.
2%, steady growth.
From a structural point of view, the proportion of non-interest income in revenue in 1H19 increased earlier4.
1 up to 40.
72%, income structure is more optimized.
From the perspective of fee income structure, bank card business is still the main source of fee, and 1H19 bank card fee accounted for 40% of total fee income.
7%, but the scale of 1H19 increased only 9%.
8%, before 1H18 (19.
At the same time, the Bank of Communications vigorously developed wealth management business, and the commission growth rate of agency business in 1H19 increased by 31%, which accounted for a 4% increase in the proportion of fees in the initial period.
3 up to 9.
The interest rate differential decreased slightly from the previous quarter, and the active adjustment denied that the structure favored the interest rate differential.
1H19 Bank of Communications ‘net interest margin increased by 17bps year by year, but from a month-on-month perspective, the 1H19 net interest margin fell by 4bps from the initial period, and the 2Q19 net interest margin fell by 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.
According to the analysis 杭州桑拿网 of the change in interest margin, both the asset side and the debt side negatively contribute -2bps to the interest margin.
Asset-side pricing pressure and debt-side deposit cost rise are the main reasons, but benefit from the easing of inter-bank market liquidity in the first half of the year, the cost of inter-bank resistance fell, and supplemented the Bank of Communications’ initiative to adjust the compensation structure, which played a buffer role.
To be specific: 1) On the asset side, asset pricing has generally declined in a wide currency environment.The interest rate factor negatively contributes 4bps to the interest margin.
The returns on several assets have declined. In principle, the discount rate on bills and the return on assets of the same industry decreased by 0 from the initial period.
However, the Bank of Communications ‘retail loan pricing power has improved, and the yield has increased by 0 from the initial period.
08 per share; 2) On the debt side, the cost of deposits is under pressure, and market-oriented debt interest rates have risen and fallen.
Interest rate factors and structural factors contribute 1bp and -3bps to the interest margin, respectively.
In terms of interest rates, deposits negatively contributed 5bps to the spread, and the cost of public deposits and retail deposits in 1H19 increased by 9bps and 8bps, respectively. However, the cost of interbank resistance and the cost of dealing with bonds decreased by 18bps and 34bps, respectively, of which positive contributions contributed to the difference of 7bps, Effectively hedge the potential impact of deposit costs.
In terms of structure, the interbank resistance is contributing 4bps to the interest spread, and the 2Q19 interbank resistance scale growth rate is 3.
4% compared to the same period last year (-20.
6%) significantly improved.
The Bank of Communications flexibly adjusted its resistance structure and slightly increased its peer resistance, alleviating the pressure of rising deposition costs.
The quality of assets remained stable and the level of provision was slightly improved.
1) The bad rate is stable for a long time.
Bank of Communications’ 2Q19 NPL ratio remained flat at 1 quarter-on-quarter.
47%, adding back the write-off rate of bad production increased by 12bps to 84bps quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase in write-off speed.
2) From the perspective of bad leading indicators, potential risks are constantly being resolved.
In 1H19, the loan scale increased slightly by 0 from the previous month.
1%, but the interest rate fell 13bps to 2 from the previous quarter.
The scale of overdue loans in 1H19 increased by 1.
6%, but the overdue rate continued to fall by 7bps to 1.
3) Negative identification is more stringent, and the provisioning base is slightly improved.
1H19 overdue for more than 90 days / non-performing loans decreased by 3 from the previous month.
1 up to 84.
2%, provision coverage ratio increased by 0 from the previous quarter.
1 up to 173.
Company view: Bank of Communications’ performance is in line with expectations, revenue and PPOP maintain double-digit growth, core profitability is restored, and asset quality is stable.
We expect the net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 5 in 19-21.
1% / 5.
4% / 5.
8% (previous forecast was 9 in 19/20.
2% / 11.
9%, adjusting the spread and increasing the 21-year forecast).
Currently corresponds to 19 years 0.
59X PB, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk Warning: The severe economic downturn has caused bad risks for the industry.
Panzhihua Vanadium Titanium (000629) Quarterly Report Review: Look forward to Xichang Steel Vanadium Vanadium Products Business
3Q19 company profit 2.
10,000 yuan, upgraded to “overweight” rating On October 24, Panzhihua Iron and Steel Vanadium and Titanium released the 2019 third quarter report:杭州桑拿 19 Q1-Q3 operating income103.
800 million (YoY-2.
7%); Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company 14.
1 ppm (YoY-31.
1%); 19Q3 operating income 31.
200 million (YoY-19.
9% in the second quarter.
3%); net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company2.
10,000 yuan (YoY-76.
9%), in line with our expectations.
The company’s third-quarter performance was mainly affected by the decline in vanadium prices.
We maintain our previous profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s EPS in 19-21 will be 0.
Considering the injectable period of Xichang Steel’s vanadium and vanadium products business, the company’s leader continues to consolidate and raises its target price to 3.
40 yuan, raised to the “overweight” level.
The vanadium price in 2019Q3 has dropped 58%, dragging down the company’s performance 19Q3V2O5 average price (excluding tax) 11.
580,000 yuan / ton, the same, respectively down 58.
7%, dragging down company performance.
19 Q1-Q3 sales, management, research and development, changes in financial expenses + 17%, -1.
6%, + 47%, -68%.
The increase in R & D expenses was due to the increase in R & D expenditures, while the decrease in financial expenses was mainly due to the decrease in short-term expenditures and the rise in bank deposits.
19Q3 sales, management, research and development, changes in financial expenses + 27%, -4.
7%, + 107%, -61%.
The profit level of the company declined, and the gross profit margin was 19Q1-Q3, and the net profit margin was 21.
9% (-5% compared to the same period last year).
9pct), 19Q3 gross sales margin, net profit margin was 17.
1% (11% year-on-year.
The company’s ability to collect funds was improved, and its asset-liability ratio dropped 19 Q1-Q3. The company’s cash received from selling goods and providing labor services accounted for 63% of operating income, which was +7 compared with the same period last year.
1pct, the ability to collect money is improved; the net cash flow from operating activities accounts for 19% of operating income, which is +7 compared with the same period last year.
4pct; receivable, payable items decreased by 16 from the beginning of the period.
6%, the ability to occupy downstream funds increased.
In addition, the company’s asset-liability ratio at the end of 19Q3 was 27.
3%, down 7 from the end of 18 years.
The company plans to purchase Xichang Steel vanadium and vanadium products branch by paying cash. On October 17, the company announced that it planned to purchase Xichang Steel Vanadium Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Xichang Steel Vanadium”)) The overall operating assets and liabilities of the vanadium products branch.
On September 14, 2016, Pangang Group and Angang Group issued the “Commitment on Avoiding Inter-industry Competition”, promising to make profits in the production and processing business of Xichang Steel’s vanadium and vanadium products for three consecutive years.Xichang Steel’s vanadium product production and processing business is injected into the company.
At present, the company’s production capacity of vanadium products is 2.
2 samples, Xichang Steel vanadium and vanadium products capacity 1.
8 is the most. If the subsequent transactions are completed, the company’s vanadium product capacity will reach 4 digits, with a total output of 3 in 2018.
98 preliminary calculations, accounting for about 44 of the total domestic output of vanadium products.
72%, the company’s top will continue to consolidate.
The leader is expected to continue to consolidate. If it is upgraded to an “overweight” rating company, if it purchases Xichang Steel Vanadium, it will further integrate the group’s vanadium resources business and resolve inter-industry competition, and the company’s leader will be consolidated.
At present, the growth rate of newly started construction area and installation project investment is still in a negative and positive state. The construction stock to be constructed may still be in a lagging state. The growth rate of investment in construction projects in the later period is expected to win support. The downstream demand for vanadium products is relatively stable.
We expect the EPS in 19-21 to be zero.
31 yuan, corresponding to PE is 12.
15 times, according to the forecasted increase in the proportion of gross profit in 2019, considering the company’s diversified business discount, given to the company in March 2019.
85 times PE estimate, 2019 forecast EPS 0.
23 yuan, corresponding to the target price of 3.
40 yuan, raised to the “overweight” level.
Risk reminders: domestic and foreign macroeconomic indicators and policy adjustments; vanadium price changes have exceeded expectations.
BYD (002594) Annual Report Comments: First-quarter 2019 results will significantly improve and continue strong product cycle
The company’s performance in 2018 was in line with expectations and net profit attributable to mothers was achieved.
8 billion companies released their 2018 annual report: 2018 achieved operating income of 1,300.
5.5 billion (+ 22% year-on-year.
79%), net profit attributable to mother 27.
8 billion (YOY-31.
63%), net profit after deduction 5
8.6 billion (YOY-80.
39%); of which, the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 410.
7.3 billion (+ 28% YoY).
43%), net profit attributable to mother 12.
5.武汉夜网论坛3 billion (YOY-1.
Taking into account that the new energy vehicle business has achieved strong growth compared to the same period in 2018, the company estimates that net profit in the first quarter of 2019 will be 7 ppm to 900 million, an increase of 583.
We believe that the company, as a global leader in the new energy automotive industry, will continue to benefit from industrial dividends, and the new product cycle will drive brand effects and sales volume-driven scale effects.
We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 32 in 2019-2021.
22 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.
95 yuan, maintaining the “strongly recommended” level.
A number of new models were launched in 2019, and the product cycle remained strong. In 2018, BYD achieved total vehicle sales of 520,687 units, an increase of 45.
Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase by 247,811 units, surpassing Tesla in April 2018.
520,000 vehicles were delivered, an increase of 118 per year.
01%, ranking first in the world.
According to GGII data, the company’s new energy passenger car sales in January 2019 were 28,005 vehicles, continuing to maintain the number one position in the world.
The company’s domestic market share of new energy passenger cars in 2018 was 21 in January and February 2019, respectively.
67% and 27.
84%, stays solid above the faucet.
In 2019, the company’s product strategy launched the e-series and the dynasty series at the same time, including e1, Tang EV, Song Max DM and Yuan EV535, and other models were launched, maintaining high sales growth.
Adhering to the strategy of opening up to the outside world and continuously showing the value of the supply chain On March 25, 2019, BYD and Huawei signed a comprehensive strategic agreement in Shenzhen. The two parties will cooperate in the areas of automotive intelligent networking, intelligent driving, smart cloud rails, and smart parks.
According to GGII, the company’s power battery delivery volume in 2018 was 14GWh, with a market share of 21.
In addition, the company will establish a joint venture with Changan Automobile to produce a 10GWh battery factory to supply power batteries for Changan Automobile.For businesses with core competitiveness such as power batteries and IGBT technology applications, the company is expected to accelerate external sales while promoting internal sales while ensuring internal demand, and achieve long-term sustainable development of the business.
Risk warning: New energy vehicle subsidy policy is withdrawn; competition in the industry is intensified; the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices; the photovoltaic sector business is dragging down performance.