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Bank of Communications (601328): Profitability continues to repair stable asset quality
Event: Bank of Communications disclosed its semi-annual report for 2019.
In 1H19, operating income reached 1182 trillion US dollars, an increase of 16% year-on-year; net profit attributable to mothers was 42.7 billion US dollars, exceeding the growth of 4%.
8%, in line with our expectations.
The non-performing ratio in the second quarter of 19 was flat at 1 quarter-on-quarter.
47%, provision coverage increased by 0 quarter-on-quarter.
1 up to 173.
The high revenue growth benefited from the improvement of the interest margin and the contribution of non-interest income, and the repair of profitability.
In 1H19, Bank of Communications’ operating income and pre-provision profit (PPOP) increased by 16% and 10, respectively.
3%, although it is faster than 19Q1 (26.
5%, 16%) fell, but the overall growth rate in the first half of the year (-1.
2%) There is resistance to increase.
From the analysis of performance driving factors, net interest income contributed the most to the revenue side, and net interest income contributed 9 in 1H19.
23%, of which the change in the spread contributed 6.
2%; non-interest income contribution 6.
78%, of which net income from program fees contributed 4.
In 1H19, the non-interest income of the Bank of Communications increased by ten in ten years.
8% compared to the same period last year (-2.
8%) The negative is positive.
Among them, net fee income increased by 9 per year.
2%, steady growth.
From a structural point of view, the proportion of non-interest income in revenue in 1H19 increased earlier4.
1 up to 40.
72%, income structure is more optimized.
From the perspective of fee income structure, bank card business is still the main source of fee, and 1H19 bank card fee accounted for 40% of total fee income.
7%, but the scale of 1H19 increased only 9%.
8%, before 1H18 (19.
At the same time, the Bank of Communications vigorously developed wealth management business, and the commission growth rate of agency business in 1H19 increased by 31%, which accounted for a 4% increase in the proportion of fees in the initial period.
3 up to 9.
The interest rate differential decreased slightly from the previous quarter, and the active adjustment denied that the structure favored the interest rate differential.
1H19 Bank of Communications ‘net interest margin increased by 17bps year by year, but from a month-on-month perspective, the 1H19 net interest margin fell by 4bps from the initial period, and the 2Q19 net interest margin fell by 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.
According to the analysis 杭州桑拿网 of the change in interest margin, both the asset side and the debt side negatively contribute -2bps to the interest margin.
Asset-side pricing pressure and debt-side deposit cost rise are the main reasons, but benefit from the easing of inter-bank market liquidity in the first half of the year, the cost of inter-bank resistance fell, and supplemented the Bank of Communications’ initiative to adjust the compensation structure, which played a buffer role.
To be specific: 1) On the asset side, asset pricing has generally declined in a wide currency environment.The interest rate factor negatively contributes 4bps to the interest margin.
The returns on several assets have declined. In principle, the discount rate on bills and the return on assets of the same industry decreased by 0 from the initial period.
However, the Bank of Communications ‘retail loan pricing power has improved, and the yield has increased by 0 from the initial period.
08 per share; 2) On the debt side, the cost of deposits is under pressure, and market-oriented debt interest rates have risen and fallen.
Interest rate factors and structural factors contribute 1bp and -3bps to the interest margin, respectively.
In terms of interest rates, deposits negatively contributed 5bps to the spread, and the cost of public deposits and retail deposits in 1H19 increased by 9bps and 8bps, respectively. However, the cost of interbank resistance and the cost of dealing with bonds decreased by 18bps and 34bps, respectively, of which positive contributions contributed to the difference of 7bps, Effectively hedge the potential impact of deposit costs.
In terms of structure, the interbank resistance is contributing 4bps to the interest spread, and the 2Q19 interbank resistance scale growth rate is 3.
4% compared to the same period last year (-20.
6%) significantly improved.
The Bank of Communications flexibly adjusted its resistance structure and slightly increased its peer resistance, alleviating the pressure of rising deposition costs.
The quality of assets remained stable and the level of provision was slightly improved.
1) The bad rate is stable for a long time.
Bank of Communications’ 2Q19 NPL ratio remained flat at 1 quarter-on-quarter.
47%, adding back the write-off rate of bad production increased by 12bps to 84bps quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to the increase in write-off speed.
2) From the perspective of bad leading indicators, potential risks are constantly being resolved.
In 1H19, the loan scale increased slightly by 0 from the previous month.
1%, but the interest rate fell 13bps to 2 from the previous quarter.
The scale of overdue loans in 1H19 increased by 1.
6%, but the overdue rate continued to fall by 7bps to 1.
3) Negative identification is more stringent, and the provisioning base is slightly improved.
1H19 overdue for more than 90 days / non-performing loans decreased by 3 from the previous month.
1 up to 84.
2%, provision coverage ratio increased by 0 from the previous quarter.
1 up to 173.
Company view: Bank of Communications’ performance is in line with expectations, revenue and PPOP maintain double-digit growth, core profitability is restored, and asset quality is stable.
We expect the net profit attributable to mothers to increase by 5 in 19-21.
1% / 5.
4% / 5.
8% (previous forecast was 9 in 19/20.
2% / 11.
9%, adjusting the spread and increasing the 21-year forecast).
Currently corresponds to 19 years 0.
59X PB, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk Warning: The severe economic downturn has caused bad risks for the industry.
Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) Annual Report Commentary Report: Expenses dragged down 18-year performance Zhejiang Petrochemical shifted to production preparation stage
Revenue has increased, and profit growth has been announced to the 2018 annual report, which is expected to achieve total operating income of 914.25 trillion, +26 a year.91%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.08 无锡桑拿网 thousand yuan, at least -20.29%, specific to each quarter, Q1-Q4 achieved net profit attributable to mothers6.36/4.78/6.55 / -1.In the fourth quarter, crude oil prices showed a unilateral rapid decline in the fourth quarter, the industry’s profit passively shifted, and the company’s inventory price loss was zero.60 billion. The main business operation was acceptable, and the increase in financial expenses dragged down the performance of Sinopec, which reported operating income of 191.500 million, net profit 9.0 billion (2017 net profit of 10.200 million), 18H1 / H2 net profit was 7 respectively.0/2.The profit range of RMB 0 billion and 18H2 was the initial profit of Sinopec Corp., which was less than expected. On the PTA side, the report also reported that Yiyi Shengda, Zhejiang Yisheng and Hainan Yisheng achieved operating revenues of 295/370/224 billion and net profit4.6/6.5/4.The company participates in controlling PTA output of 1,350 tons, and reuses PTA ton net profit of 129 yuan / ton at 90% of production capacity, surpassing Hengli PTA ton net profit (339 yuan / ton). Looking forward to 2019, the domestic PTA supply end will increase by a considerable amountLimited, demand increase is still in, PTA market supply and demand demand is expected to further tighten, PTA profit levels are expected to be higher than 2018 levels; in terms of filament, the report states that Shengyuan Chemical Fiber has achieved operating income.200 million, net profit 1.300 million yuan, the estimated net profit per ton is 102 yuan / ton. In terms of expenses, report potential company selling expenses7.400 million, previously +45.5%, preliminary increase in transportation insurance costs; management costs.400 million, a slight increase; financial expenses up to 13.3 billion, an actual growth of 204% per year, which is initially due to exchange losses of 18 years2.5.5 billion, and 17 years to achieve positive exchange gains4.6.5 billion, 18 is the year of the company’s investment, Zhejiang Petrochemical project promoted the increase in loans, and reported that the company’s index expenditure gradually increased to 10.800 million (17 years interest expense 9.100 million), cracks dragged down performance. The company released the performance indicators for the first quarter of 2019, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies5.7-7.0 billion, a 10-year increase of -10-10%. The installation work of Zhejiang Petrochemical Project was basically completed, and it gradually shifted to trial production preparations. According to the annual report, the company’s construction in progress amounted to 58.9 billion yuan, 18Q3 construction in progress amounted to 41.9 billion yuan, and 18Q4 construction in progress in the single quarter increased by 17 billion yuan.The number of projects under construction has increased. As of the end of the reporting period, the construction and installation of the first phase of the project has been basically completed, and the company has gradually turned to the trial production preparation and pre-sale stages. The company’s profit forecast, estimation and investment rating The Zhejiang Petrochemical project involves a wide range, complex construction, and many supporting projects. The company has overcome all kinds of difficulties and achieved great progress.It is assumed that the capacity utilization rate of the first 武汉夜网论坛 phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Project in 19/20/21 will be 10% / 80% / 90% respectively, and the net profit in 19/20/21 will be 42.2/78.6/89.100 million, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 19 respectively.8/10.6/9.4x, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: polyester filament and PTA profit review; risk of refining and refining projects being less than expected